Do Facts Matter More Than Rhetoric and Social Visions?

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Thomas Sowell ponders the question in today’s title at the end of an essay published ar Real Clear Politics. His essay has to do with new facts that support old facts that contradict the rhetoric of the race baiters and the victimhood snake oil salesmen used to explain why minorities score so poorly in standardized school tests compared to white students. (A recent study in England finds that poor whites score much worse than poor minorities.)

I have no doubt that Dr. Sowell knows that the question he ponders coud apply to any issue the separates the Left from the Right in the political or the economical arena. Furthermore, I have no doubt that Sowell knows the answer to his question. Rhetoric and social visions trump logic, reason, and facts when it comes to political or economical policy making. I’m not sure there has ever been a time in history when that was not true. The one possible exception may have been the early days of the Great American Experiment.

The intellectual elite ideologues are more than capable of processing the facts, reason, and logic proffered by the Right; but they won’t. Their social visions of fairness or whatever are too important to them to be dissuaded by facts, reason, and logic. (The ends justify the means.)

Politicians on the Left (including most Republicans) love the power bestowed on them by the voters and their only interest is hanging on to that power. They will not be detered by facts, reason, or logic.

Crony capitalist certainly know better, but they don’t care. They are getting richer faster because illogical and unreasonable Leftist policies.

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Union activists are only interested if feathering their own nest and they don’t care who gets hurt in the process.

Worst of all there are many millions of voters who have been conditioned for decades not to think for themselves. They may be third generation welfare moms or hard working highschool graduates or they may be professionals with college degrees. Critical thinking is a skill that evades them. Facts, logic, and reason are wasted on them.

What about the so-called all-important Independent voters? They are supposed be critical thinkers. Isn’t that what makes them “independents”? What do Independents stand for, anyway? I have no facts to back up my opinion. However, I do wonder just how independent these Independent voters really are? I suspect that if one could analyze their voting history, we would find that the largest fraction of Independents vote for the Democratic candidate 95% of the time and the other fraction votes for the Republican candidate 95% of the time. If I am close to being right, that means that five percent of the time issues or a particular candidate cause “independents” to cross over and vote for a candidate in the other party. But, that is nothing more than my opinion.

So, who is it that cares about facts, logic, and reason? That would be us: the conservative and libertarian voters. The same people who care about freedom, our God-given or natural rights, and the free market system. How many are there of us? We know that we are not 100% of those who vote Republican; 50 million plus or minus a few million. We know that some libertarians vote for libertarian candidates. So, I would guess we number 30 to 35 million voters at most. Is it any wonder then why we have such a hard time electing enough like-minded people to Washington to change the direction our nation is going?

Well, that’s what I’m thinking. What are your thoughts?

Original Post:  Asylum Watch

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More Reasons for the Obama Campaign to Panic? Collapse and Impending Doom on Election Day?

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Yesterday, we discussed that the Obama Campaign’s allocation of funds and resources indicated that they are panicking, using scarce resources in places that a democrat incumbent should never have to defend this late in the game.  Today, however, even more indications of collapse and impending doom came to light.

Reason for Panic 1:  Dwindling Crowds at Obama Events…

In a related presidential campaign rally in Commerce City, Colorado, former President Bill Clinton was the designated cheerleader to speak to the gathered faithful. However, the rally, held at a Commerce City High School, wasn’t “optimal,” to use a phrase from President Obama. The school extended the gymnasium’s partition across the half-court line, so as to give the rally a more intimate setting.

This Obama rally was in start contrast to the Romney/Ryan rally held last week at Red Rocks which was filled to overflowing capacity and had to turn away thousands who attempted to attend the rally.

Can you spell e.t.h.u.s.i.a.s.m?  Apparently, team Romney has a ton, and team Obama…not so much.

Reason for Panic 2:  Romney Leading in Early Voting…

According to the Colorado Secretary of State’s reporting of early voting, Republican’s continue to lead the way in returning their early voting ballots. With total votes of 1,150,698, reported so far the breakdown is as follows;

Republican – 439,269 (38.2%)

Democrat – 404,870 (35.2%)

Undecided – 295,122 (25.6%)

If that keeps up, maybe the Democrats will shy away from early voting.  Though, they probably think that the truckloads full of “absentee ballots” that they have on hand will counter this.

Reason to Panic 3:  Obama Having a Hard Time Leading in Cooked Polls

But with one week to go the last gasp effort to rally the MSNBC troops took place today on Morning Joe as they touted the Quinnipiac/CBS?NYT polls Saying Obama is up 5 in Ohio with a week to go.

What really got me was their claim that the Quinnipiac poll was the “most accurate” and again playing the “poll denier” card. I’ve personally found their numbers the least believable and while they were talking about the fights in other states as an alternative to Ohio for Romney I looked up the internals of this Ohio/VA/Florida poll and found this:

After talking about how reliable Quinnipiac is, for 15 minutes and while I was tweeting out the D+8 samples in all of these states D+7 in Florida, they suddenly pivoted as Mark Halperin brought up the D+8 sample and people asked how can this be the case if Mitt is up by huge margins among independents in this poll?

Um, if you have a hard time leading in a poll that is over-sampled  to your side, how do you have confidence that you’re going to win the election?  It’s not looking good.

Reason to Panic 4:  Freefall in Michigan?

And, Obama is in a free-fall collapse in Michigan.
Business Insider reported:

President Barack Obama has seen a once-steady lead in Michigan decline to just 2 points in a recent poll, and Michigan has been thrown into “toss-up” status in the election’s final week.

The poll, from The Detroit News, finds Obama leading Republican rival Mitt Romney, 47.7 percent to 45 percent. That’s the second poll in a week that has shown an increasingly tight race in the state, including a Foster McCollum White Baydoun poll that showed the race virtually tied. And it comes as a pro-Romney super PAC, American Crossroads, includes Michigan in its $50 million, final-week ad buy.

Intriguingly, when comparing the Michigan poll to a new poll of Ohio released today, it shows that the race in Michigan is actually closer.

Only leading by 2.7 points?  With most polls, that will be within the margin of error.  And, if Democrats are over-sampled, as they are in most polls, it can spell doom for Obama.

Reason  to Panic 5:  Has Obama Lost Independents?  

Take a look at this…

The evidence is piling up.  The Obama Campaign has many reasons to panic.  The problem is that as they panic, their lies will become more outlandish, and their ability to justify illegal acts to win will only be amplified.  It could get very interesting.

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Media Distrust at an all-time High: A Look Inside the Numbers

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What happens when a poll is taken showing the level of trust in the media?  We see a clue to the outcome in november.  The Rand Paul Review has the following, from Gallup…

More broadly, Republicans continue to express the least trust in the media, while Democrats express the most. Independents’ trust fell below the majority level in 2004 and has continued to steadily decline.

Trend: Trust in Mass Media, by Party

OK then, we see that the Democrats in the sample trust the media to the tune of 58%.  That is predictable, as the media cheer leads for the Democrats.  Also, we see the Republican figure is remarkably low, at 26%.  In fact, I can’t understand why it’s that high, but that is the topic for another day.  The big number-the one that the media and the Democrats have to be concerned with-concerns the independents.  Independents are the swing votes.  The numbers of liberals and Conservatives remain mostly stable, but it’s the independents that are swayed either way.  If the independents are not trusting the media much more than Republicans, that means that the pro-Obama mainstream media propaganda isn’t striking a chord.   And if the propaganda isn’t sinking in, they might not be voting Obama in the fall.

And that, my friends, spells doom for the Democrats.

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Tea Parties, Libertarians and, Paulites: America’s Only Hope

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Approximately a year ago, I opined in a post here at CoF that Conservatives and Libertarians should join forces. I argued that the areas where the two factions agree were more important than the areas of disagreement. Off and on since then, I have engaged with several conservative and libertarian bloggers to see if I could drum up some interest in pursuing a dialog on the fusion of the two groups. I was disappointed to find very little interest. The majority if both camps wanted nothing to do with the other. I was reminded of this sad fact by a comment on one of my posts last week and it caused me to rethink how I view politics in America.

Instead of seeing the American electorate as Republicans, Democrats, Independents and, a smattering of small third parties, I now see the electorates as being made up of two groups.  The biggest group, in my opinion, are those that promote and believe in Big Government (BG). To my way of thinking, the BG includes the so-called independents. Independents vote either for BG Republicans or BG Democrats. The second and smaller group of the electorate support the constitution and the rights of the individual. In essence they support Small Government (SG). Let’s take a look at the SG part of the electorate.

The SG faction is made up of three movements, which are growing and that’s a good thing.

  1. Libertarian Party _ The Libertarians obviously promote their own candidates to run against the Republicans and Democrats.  Because there is a growing dissatisfaction with both of the principal political parties, the  Libertarian Party (LP) is growing. From what I read, that growth is coming more from disaffected Democrats than from Republicans. Although the LP nay be a long way from being able to win the Presidency, they will in time be electing members of the House and the Senate and they can be counted on to vote SG.
  2. Paulites _ I do not use the term “Paulites” any pejorative way. I just don’t know what else to call them. They are part of a movement started by Ron Paul and are effectively libertarians who are working within the Republican Party. The Paulite movement is growing and very motivated. They are working at the grassroot level to infiltrate and in some case control the Republican Party machinery at the local and state level. They will be seeking and supporting like-minded candidates to run on the Republican ticket. When successful, those office holders will vote SG.
  3. Tea Parties _  The Tea Party movement is the largest and, to date, the most successful of the SG movements. Like the Paulites, they are working within the Republican Party.  The have successfully removed a few RINOs from office and have elected a number of conservatives. To be sure, they have made some mistakes; but they are learning and improving. Most Tea Party members in the House and Senate vote SG most of the time. Maybe some day they will vote SG all of the time. Also, like the Paulites, they are working to take control of the Republican Party at the local and state level.

Changing demographics and the increasing number of citizens dependent on  government, are working in favor of BG. The chance that the three SG movements can over come this trend are small. It will depend in large part on how many of the SG electorate get intimately involved in these movements. The more and more people get involved with these movements,, the greater are our chances of reaching a majority of SGs in the House and Senate and some day the Presidency. At best, it will take four, five or six election cycles to get there. That is why this humble observer, sitting on the outside looking in, wishes all the success in the world to the Libertarian party, the Paulites and, of course, to the Tea Parties. These three movements are our only hope.

Well, that’s what I’m thinking. What are your thoughts?

Original Post: Conservatives on Fire

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What Went Wrong with the American Experiment and When?

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A very important question, wouldn’t you agree?  It’s a question that in one form or another has been the focus of many posts on the blogosphere for a long time. Recently, one of my regulars on Guest Saturday have taken-on this question; Brian at Frankenstein Government in his post “Critical  Mass…When Exactly Did We Lose Control of Our Country” addresses the question directly.

I want to share this article with you not because the author is a collaborator  here at Conservatives On Fire but because I found his approach to this important question very interesting and I hope you will as well.

The first thing that grabbed my attention was his use of the term critical mass. I have used this very same term on numerous occasions to infer that for America’s Constitutional Republic to be sustained there must be a minimum number of citizens (critical mass) actively involved in supporting and protecting that Constitution. Without that critical mass, the system will morph into something else. The very same principle holds true for a company. If there comes the day when there is one to few employees that care about the well-being of the company they work for, that company will begin to fail. See how Brian introduces his subject:

If you are a citizen of this country, you have a responsibility. You have a responsibility to become informed and educated about your government and it’s leadership. In fact it should be a moral and civic duty. If you fail to take an active interest in government, you do U.S. citizens a disservice. Your apathy sucks. It is contagious and it is killing our country.

So “apathy” is the “what” of our question according to Brian,; but he was not satisfied with identifying the cause, he wanted to know when it began.

When exactly did we lose control of our country? I think we could argue any number of dates including 1913 and the creation of the FED. I have given this a lot of thought over the years. When was the precise moment when Americans said screw it, there’s no point in worrying about government? What we think does not matter. I have a date. It was July 19, 1969.

I assume you are as surprised as I was when I read that Brian had fixed a specific date to when apathy began to take control in our country. So what happened on July 19, 1969?

On July 19, 1969, Senator Teddy Kennedy killed Mary Jo Kopechne at Chappaquiddick…. Kennedy was never charged with manslaughter or murder. His family paid off the Kopechnes’. He was never charged or tried because of his status and a few cowardly and morally bankrupt prosecutors. Mary Jo Kopechne died that day at Chappaquiddick. So did any sense of fair play and justice in America.
Brian believes that this date is the “why” of our question.;that people realized that our  elected government officials live by a different set of rules than everybody else. He does not excuse people who have shunned their responsibilities, however. He has a final message for them:
The next time some coward criticizes you for having an opinion on politics, please send them this piece. Tell them that our country was hi jacked by cowards sometime around Jul 19, 1969. That there are still a few of us that believe in being informed, trying to act responsibly, and do the right thing. And just because we are the minority, perhaps, doesn’t mean we are on the wrong side of this. Or that we are going to go away because the cowards don’t like the subject matter.
I agree with Brian tha t apathy is what happened to our country. Whether it happened on a specific date, as he says, is debatable. I do think that Brian has narrowed in on the right period in time; the sixties. I was in college in the sixties. I remember well the anti-war protests, the race riots and, the anti-establishment feelings of that pivotal time in our country’s history. This is when the socialist took control of the Democrat Party. It was during and following this period that the socialist focused on taking over our education system and the news media. The rest, as they say, is history.
I want to leave you with two thoughts today. First, history is always a work in progress. We who are living the history can influence the direction it will take. And, secondly, just to be clear, the apathy we are talking about here is apathy on the part of the liberals. Not at all. They have not been apathetic to their cause. No, it is the rest of us; the conservatives, the RINOs and, the independents. The conservatives have , for the most part, woken-up in the last few years. The RINOs and the independents have yet to wake-up. If we are to influence the direction that history will take, it will be dependent on how successful we are in shaking the apathy out of these two groups. Maybe, as I wrote in yesterday’s post, the movie version of Atlas Shrugged, to be released in a few weeks, may be a powerful tool for bringing the RINOs and independents back to reality.   We can use all the help we can get.

Original Post: Conservatives on Fire

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Democrats & Obama Tanking in the Polls: Preparing to use Smear Tactics Rather Than Debate Ideas

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The Democrats are in trouble.  Their ideas are failing (as if they wouldn’t).  They are losing badly in the court of public opinion.  ObamaCare is turning into the pig that we all said it was.  Cap and Trade is stalled.  Amnesty is unpopular.  They continue to go against public opinion, and are hiding from their constituents.  Their overall elitism and complete trashing of the Constitution has doomed them to failure in November.

There are two developments that indicate that I am correct.

First up, Gallup recently released the following polling data.

PRINCETON, NJ — Thirty-eight percent of independents approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as president, the first time independent approval of Obama has dropped below 40% in a Gallup Daily tracking weekly aggregate. Meanwhile, Obama maintains the support of 81% of Democrats, and his job approval among Republicans remains low, at 12%.

These data are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews conducted the week of June 28-July 4.

Over the past year, Obama has lost support among all party groups, though the decline has been steeper among independents than among Republicans or Democrats. Today’s 38% approval rating among independents is 18 percentage points lower than the 56% found July 6-12, 2009. During the same period, his support has fallen nine points among Democrats (from 90% to 81%) and eight points among Republicans (from 20% to 12%).

Let’s remember my favorite demographic:

Liberals: 20%

Independents/moderates: 40%

Conservatives:  40%

So, if about 60% of independents are against Obama, and a substantial number vote in November, how can the Democrats maintain anything?  This is a landslide that even traditional Democratic techniques, like ACORN created voter fraud and Black Panther intimidation, can stop.  What are they going to do?

Additionally, Republican voters are showing much greater enthusiasm for their chances in November.  This usually correlates positively with voter turnout.

So, what are the Democrats going to do to stem the tide?

I think it’s a safe bet that all of the little organizations formerly known as ACORN will doing their thing.  I also bet that that there will be some interference and falsifying absentee ballots, but they can’t turn this kind of deficit around.

As we are starting to see, they are also going to ramp up one of their other plans.  They are going to try to smear their opponents.

The Democratic Party is moving faster and more aggressively than in previous election years to dig up unflattering details about Republican challengers. In House races from New Jersey to Ohio to California, Democratic operatives are seizing on evidence of GOP candidates’ unpaid income taxes, property tax breaks and ties to financial firms that received taxpayer bailout money.

In recent weeks, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has circulated information to local reporters about Republican candidates in close races. Among the claims:

— That Jim Renacci of Ohio once owed nearly $1.4 million in unpaid state taxes.

Ahem, I thought that was OK after the Treasury Sec did the same thing.

— That David Harmer of California received $160,000 in bonus and severance pay from a firm that got a federal bailout.

How many former Goldman Sachs employees work for the administration?

— That Jon Runyan of New Jersey got a legal break in property taxes for his 25-acre homestead by qualifying for a farmland assessment thanks to his four donkeys.

He has Democrats on his land?  Or are they jackasses of another variety?

Seriously though, this is consistent with Democratic campaign strategy.  Their ideas are losers.  They are about growing government power, killing jobs, and expanding their control over you.  The only way they have to win is to follow Alinsky’s rules.  They have to attack their opponents in order to discredit them, taking the public’s attention off the actual issues.

The question is, will the bulk of the people fall for it again?

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The Demographics Hold: Conservatives on the Rise

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Last year, I covered that there is a “Demographic of Doom” for the Democratic Party.  Basically, the people politically identified as ‘Conservatives” vastly outnumbered those identified as “liberal,” and equaled those identified as “moderate or independent.” This is what I had to say back then.

Recent polls have shown that America is beginning to move to the right, with 40% claiming to be Conservative, 21% liberal, and 38% “moderate.”

With nearly a 2-1 margin, Conservatives might see this as a cause for celebration. This has happened before- people do turn more conservative when there are difficult economic times.  It might also be because the POTUS has been caught in many of his lies, and his polices are being exposed, stalled, and (hopefully) defeated.

The research I noted indicates that neither ideology has a sufficient voting bloc to win an election outright, the liberals even more so.  Obviously, this explains why the POTUS appeared more moderate in his rhetoric during the campaign, and why he distanced himself from his associations with ACORN, Jeremiah Wright, and Bill Ayers.  They knew what to say, and when to say it, to put the moderates at ease.  Also consider that the MSM selectively covers the left in a way that ignores their failure and promotes or invents the successes, and consequently,  there was a mass deception.  Combine all of that with the fact that the left and the MSM browbeat Bush for eight years (And Bush did an abysmal job in explaining his positions), inducing ‘Bush fatigue.”  In the end, as the saying goes, the “center did not hold.”

The implications of this are clear.  The Democrats cannot win elections without taking the middle.  They were able to do that in 2006, and 2008.  However, 2010 looks to be pretty bad for the Democrats.  Additionally, as I noted last July, the POTUS tried to appear moderate to set the middle at ease when he ran for office.  After the last 15 months of actually governing (or not), the people have gotten a taste of Obama’s policies, and it has proven to be a most sour flavor.  Needless to say, he’ll not be able to replicate that strategy.

Gallup has duplicated their polling. And the results seem a bit worse for the Democrats.

PRINCETON, NJ — Conservatives have maintained their leading position among U.S. ideological groups in the first half of 2010. Gallup finds 42% of Americans describing themselves as either very conservative or conservative. This is up slightly from the 40% seen for all of 2009 and contrasts with the 20% calling themselves liberal or very liberal.

The 2010 results are based on eight Gallup and USA Today/Gallup surveys conducted from January through June, encompassing interviews with more than 8,000 U.S. adults. The 42% identifying as conservative represents a continuation of the slight but statistically significant edge conservatives achieved over moderates in 2009. Should that figure hold for all of 2010, it would represent the highest annual percentage identifying as conservative in Gallup’s history of measuring ideology with this wording, dating to 1992.

Here’s a telling trend.

Independents today are slightly more likely to say they are moderate than conservative, with fewer than 20% identifying as liberal. While this is similar to 2009, it represents an increase in conservatism among this group since 2008. (emphasis mine)

So, this is a potentially disastrous trend for Democrats, and especially the “progressive” wing.  They need moderates and independents to vote for them.  Otherwise, they are a fringe party.  However, the independents and moderates have been increasingly alienated by the Democrat’s schemes, and are moving to the right.    Essentially, both poles need the middle to win, but the left needs far more of that segment than the right to pull off electoral victories.  Also, we must consider that not all members of any segment will vote, but at this point in time, enthusiasm goes to the Conservatives, so the GOP should expect greater turnout and gains in November.

I looked forward for this polling data, as Gallup does it yearly.   I was interested in seeing if the trends had changed.  However, it has some particular importance, given the recent immigration debate.  Over the last week or so, I’ve been stressing to other bloggers that ” Comprehensive Immigration Reform” (read: amnesty) is solely targeted at leveling the ideological/demographic  imbalance.  If the “progressives” can grant amnesty to millions of illegals, and make them dependent on government programming, they can do much to “correct” this imbalance.  It’s not that they care for the illegals any more than any of their other client groups.  They keep them down just enough to keep them on the government plantation (as well as letting them think that they are doing them a favor).  That way, they know they’ll have their votes every election day.

Image Credit: Gallup

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Majority of Americans View Government as a Threat

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CNN recently published (to my surprise) the results of a poll that indicates that a majority of Americans view the government as an imminent threat to their freedoms.

Fifty-six percent of people questioned in a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Friday say they think the federal government’s become so large and powerful that it poses an immediate threat to the rights and freedoms of ordinary citizens. Forty-four percent of those polled disagree.

Now, I know what the talking heads will say; “It’s all of those ignorant, redneck, racist, fascist, gun-owning, bible believing, flat Earther, and undereducated teabaggers!”  Well, the breakdown of the numbers is even more revealing.

The survey indicates a partisan divide on the question: only 37 percent of Democrats, 63 percent of Independents and nearly 7 in 10 Republicans say the federal government poses a threat to the rights of Americans.

According to CNN poll numbers released Sunday, Americans overwhelmingly think that the U.S. government is broken – though the public overwhelmingly holds out hope that what’s broken can be fixed. (Emphasis mine)

This is where the numbers kill the Democrats.  It’s a no-brainer that Conservatives and Republicans would view the government as a threat.  However, that 63% that I emphasized is the coup de grace for the Democrats.  If you remember, polling over the summer indicated that about 20% of the population is liberal, over 40% is Conservative, and the rest being  independent.  The independents showed up for the Democrats big time in 2006 & 2008.  They are apparently having “buyers remorse.”

While the POTUS might think that he only needs to “educate” us more, we’ve gotten the message already.  Bill Maher might thing that we’re “stupid,” but it seems that we’ve figured out the score.  The left can condescend as much as they like, but their days are numbered, and so are their plans.

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