Obama Can’t Win a Poll Where Democrats are Over-Sampled +11?

Share

Your ads will be inserted here by

Easy Plugin for AdSense.

Please go to the plugin admin page to
Paste your ad code OR
Suppress this ad slot.

We’ve been covering the fact that pollsters, in their effort to shape opinion, rather than reflect it, have been oversampling Democrats to make it appear that Obama is ahead.  Da Tech Guy has been ahead of the crowd on this, so check out his place.  In the meantime, here is the latest poll to be fudged.  Gateway Pundit has the information…

CNN reported:

It’s all tied up, according to a new national poll released two days before the presidential election.

And the CNN/ORC International survey not only indicates a dead heat in the race for the White House, but also on almost every major indicator of President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney that was tested in the poll.

Then on page 29 of the polling results we find out they over sampled Democrats by 11%.

With the massive problems that the Democrats are having with enthusiasm, and with the Republicans chomping at the bit to vote on Tuesday, it’s beyond all credibility to over-sample at 11%.  Then again, even with oversampling by 11%, Obama can’t do better than a tie?

Yeah, it’s that bad.

Share

CNN Publishes Poll Results With Incomplete Internals: Trying to Hide Democrat Oversampling?

Share

Your ads will be inserted here by

Easy Plugin for AdSense.

Please go to the plugin admin page to
Paste your ad code OR
Suppress this ad slot.

CNN recently published a poll showing Obama up by seven points, which seems incomprehensible.  However, when bloggers, like Da Tech Guy, took the poll apart, they saw that the breakdown of party affiliation in the poll was never punished.

Can you read, “OVERSAMPLING?”

Da Tech Guy has more…

Well I took the liberty of re-reading the poll and while they don’t provide the splits they do have an interesting subsection where only Republicans and Republican leaners are asked that tells a story…

BASED ON 419 REPUBLICANS AND INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN REPUBLICAN– SAMPLING
ERROR: +/- 5 PERCENTAGE PTS.

Why is this important? here is the first line of the poll

Interviews with 1,010 adult Americans conducted by telephoneby ORC International on August 7-8, 2012. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The sample also includes 911 interviews among registered voters (plus or minus 3.5 percentagepoints).

The sample includes 760 interviews among landline respondents and 250 interviews among cell phone respondents

Your ads will be inserted here by

Easy Plugin for AdSense.

Please go to the plugin admin page to
Paste your ad code OR
Suppress this ad slot.

I know math is not a strong suit in the US any more, but lets do some math.

Ok .@CNN polled 1010 Americans , they had a section GOP/lean only of 419 That suggests 591 vs 419 that is 41.4% vs 58.6% nice split

OK here we go. You have a 17 point difference between GOP & GOP leaners and those who do not. 17 pts! Are they serious? “But DaTechGuy…” You say, “…what about the TRUE independents you are lumping them with the learners?”

So we have a poll where Romney is OVER-PERFORMING among his people growing his pie. THAT is the one indisputable fact that we can see from this poll.

Why is this important, I’ll explain it again: You don’t hide the figures if they favor you.  If the breakdowns favored Obama they would be out there and arguing them, we would be seeing people talk about how great the president is doing among both his own side and drawing independents toward him.  Instead you have to dig and do long division to establish the one fact that we can be sure of in this poll: Mitt Romney is performing beyond his base.

Don’t let yourself be played for suckers.

Reader’s Digest Condensed Version:  They over-sampled Democrats once again, and tried to hide it.

Remember that these guys are in the tank for Obama, and want him re-elected.  A great way to help is to discourage opposition, by touting his support, and by encouraging his supporters.  And, if he doesn’t seem to have enough support, invent some!  However, they’re having to over-sample to greater degrees to put Obama ahead, and nowadays, there are people watching them.

By the way, Da Tech Guy is having a fundraiser, so get over there and help him out!

Share